Treasury Market Commentary -

BoE warns of two-year recession

A weekly economic update from our Treasury team.

Published

11th November 2022

Category

Macro Commentary

The Bank is expected to raise rates by a further 0.50% next month which would take the Base rate to 3.50%, with markets forecasting a peak of 4.40% next year.

Focus now turns to the governments crucially important medium-term fiscal plans due November 17th, and how they plug the £60 billion gap in public finances. The OBR’s independent forecasts on the impact to the economy and government debt levels will be critical, with the chancellor trying to restore fiscal credibility following the fallout from September’s mini budget.

Some important data to focus on next week, including inflation, jobs, and retail sales.

In the US, inflation dropped by more than expected to 7.7%, reinforcing hopes that we are now past the peak and will continue to see a decline into next year, relieving pressure on consumers and in turn on the Fed. With a recession highly likely, the market expects the hiking cycle to slow in the coming months, with rate cuts potentially needed later next year.

Whilst in Europe, we expect the central bank to continue hiking aggressively as they remain focussed on stubbornly high inflation, despite the ongoing risks of slowing growth amid the hugely challenging economic outlook. The latest inflation data is due next week.

On the exchanges the dollar weakened considerably following the US inflation data as the Fed may slow its aggressive tightening policy and have a lower peak.

GBP/USD – 1-year chart

Week Ahead

Date

Release

Last

Expected*

15/11/22

UK Average Weekly Earns. 3M/YoY

6.0%

n/a

15/11/22

UK Unemployment Rate

3.5%

n/a

16/11/22

UK CPI YoY

10.1%

n/a

16/11/22

UK RPI YoY

12.6%

n/a

17/11/22

EU CPI YoY

9.9%

n/a

18/11/22

UK Retail Sales YoY

-6.9%

n/a

*Bloomberg survey / Not available

Foreign Exchange

Currency

Last

Currency

Last

GBP/USD

1.1720

USD/JPY

141.35

GBP/EUR

1.1455

AUD/USD

0.6640

EUR/USD

1.0230

USD/CHF

0.9645

GBP/AED

4.3050

XAU/USD

1757

Equity Indices

Indices

Previous Close

YTD % Change

FTSE 100

7391

+0.10%

S&P

3956

-16.99%

EUROSTOXX

3849

-10.45%

UK Benchmark Rates

Swap Mid (SONIA)

 

2-year

+4.31%

5-year

+3.95%


View Arbuthnot Latham’s Private and Commercial deposit rates.

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