On 24 April 2025, advisers joined us at our London offices for a timely and thought-provoking event: Decoding Trump 2.0 – Market impact and future outlook. The session was hosted by Andy Grimes, Private Banker to US clients, and featured insights from Jason Da Silva, Director of Global Investment Strategy at Arbuthnot Latham.
Jason’s presentation explored the second Trump administration’s economic agenda and its impact on global markets. From soaring tariffs and executive orders to fiscal pressures, Jason painted a picture of a volatile but not unmanageable landscape.
From optimism to shock: The impact of tariffs
The early days of the new administration had been met with business optimism – rooted in pro-growth policies such as deregulation and tax reform. However, the mood shifted dramatically on 2 April – dubbed ‘Liberation Day’ by the White House and, more ominously, ‘Liquidation Day’ by markets – when aggressive tariffs were introduced.
Describing it as a “seismic shock,” Jason noted this marked one of the steepest two-day declines in the S&P 500 in over 75 years. He underlined a critical point: tariffs are, fundamentally, a tax on global trade. And the market reaction was swift and unforgiving, with sentiment plummeting across both consumer and business sectors.
Central to the discussion was the sheer scale of economic influence the US holds. With the American consumer accounting for 35% of global consumption, the administration’s choices reverberate globally. Jason highlighted how this strength is underpinning a bold, and at times controversial, economic and geopolitical agenda.
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Jason da Silva
Man-made recession?
Jason examined how if the tariffs were to lead to a recession, it will be a policy-induced one. The US economy was entering 2025 on a solid footing – low unemployment, strong corporate and household balance sheets – any slowdown would be primarily self-inflicted. Yet, history shows that such policy induced recessions can also be reversed quickly, offering potential upside if policy pivots.
Reindustrialisation, regulation and Crypto
Beyond tariffs, Jason touched on the administration’s broader policy approach over the last 100 days including reindustrialisation, deregulation and tax policy. This agenda has been driven by a flurry of legislative activity, highlighted by the remarkable 130 executive orders signed within his first 93 days in office.
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The administration has ambitious plans for reindustrialisation, often framed as restoring America’s manufacturing base. While public support is high in theory, Jason highlighted the “public truths, private lies” paradox: few Americans want manufacturing jobs themselves. This discrepancy casts doubt on the feasibility of shifting the US economy towards a manufacturing-centric model.
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Market takeaways: Bonds, dollar, and diversification
Jason’s presentation concluded with insights into current market dynamics. Despite the upheaval, government bonds have not performed as expected during this crisis, however the investment team still expect that if there is a recession, bonds can still act as a ballast for portfolios. Meanwhile, the US dollar has declined, though Jason cautioned against overreacting, labelling predictions of its demise as “hyperbole”. While equities have had a weak start to the year. A shift in the market narrative to one focused on improving trade relations, tax cuts and deregulation could be a key support for markets in the second half of the year.
With US equities still trading at a valuation premium to the rest of the world, and safe-haven assets like gold gaining attention, Jason emphasised the need for balanced, fundamentals-driven investment strategies in the face of headline volatility and a news cycle dominated by dramatic policy moves.
In his closing remarks, Jason encouraged advisers to help clients see through the noise and focus on long-term strategy amid short-term shocks.
Why it matters for advisers to US clients
Andy Grimes, private banker to US clients, brought the evening to a close by reinforcing Arbuthnot Latham’s deep-rooted commitment to supporting American clients – a community the bank has served for many years.
As Andy explained, navigating the financial and personal transition for US clients moving to or investing in the UK is not something any one firm can do alone. It requires a well-connected, trusted circle of professionals.
“US clients need a really good team,” he said. “They need the right immigration advice, the right legal and tax structuring support. If they’re moving here, they’ll also need help with property, schooling – and they need a bank that understands their world and can open accounts before they’ve even landed in the UK.”
In a complex and often shifting cross-border regulatory landscape, clients benefit most when their advisers – legal, tax, accountancy, immigration, property, and banking – work seamlessly together. That is why we invest in partnerships with professionals who understand the nuances and needs of US clients, ensuring a joined-up approach to every aspect of their journey.
