It has been a volatile start to the year due to concerns over the escalation of the Iran crisis. Gold and Oil have rallied strongly, and markets remaining extremely cautious.
US stocks however, hit new record highs, driven by a 2.1% rise in Apple shares.
The market remains very much focused on the US-China trade negotiations, with hopes of further progress this month.
In the UK, Bank of England governor Carney was very downbeat on the outlook for the economy, both domestically and globally, with the market now increasing the probability of a rate cut in the first half of this year.
The UK government has begun the trade negotiations with the EU, insisting these will not be extended beyond the end of the year, whilst the EU insist that won’t be possible.
On the exchanges, sterling sold off aggressively following Carney’s speech, whilst the dollar has strengthened across the board.
GBP/USD is trading at a 2-week low, but we see continued demand below the 1.3000 level.
GBP/EUR continues to consolidate in a 1.1650 – 1.1850 range.
|13/1/20||UK Trade Balance||-£5188m||-£2500m|
|13/1/20||UK Industrial Prod. YoY||-1.3%||-1.2%|
|13/1/20||UK Manufacturing Prod. YoY||-1.2%||-1.6%|
|13/1/20||UK Construction Output YoY||-2.1%||-1.4%|
|14/1/20||US CPI YoY||2.1%||2.3%|
|15/1/20||UK CPI YoY||1.5%||1.5%|
|15/1/20||UK RPI YoY||2.2%||2.3%|
|17/1/20||UK Retail Sales YoY||1.0%||2.4%|
|17/1/20||EU CPI YoY||1.0%||1.3%|
|Indices||Previous Close||YTD % Change|
|DFM GENERAL INDEX||2749||-0.58%%|
UK Benchmark Rates
|3 month||0.78438%||2 year||0.79%|
|6 month||0.84925%||3 year||0.81%|
|12 month||0.94625%||5 year||0.86%|
This document should be considered a marketing communication for the purposes of the FCA rules. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. The information given in this document is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or any other investment or banking product. It does not constitute investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or service is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances.
You should seek professional advice before making any investment decision. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise. An investor may not get back the amount of money invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Investment returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations.
The facts and opinions expressed are those of the author of the document, as of the date of writing and are liable to change without notice. We do not make any representations as to the accuracy or completeness of the material and do not accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof. We are under no obligation to ensure that updates to the document are brought to the attention of any recipient of this material. Please note that this commentary may not be reproduced, distributed, disseminated, broadcasted, sold, published or circulated without prior consent from Arbuthnot Latham & Co., Limited. Arbuthnot Latham & Co., Limited is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Arbuthnot Latham & Co., Limited DIFC Branch is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority.