Macro Commentary

As we close in on the most important election for many years, a major poll this week showed the Conservatives are maintaining a healthy lead, which is helping to keep sterling underpinned. Uncertainty, however, remains extremely high, with a hung parliament remaining a major concern.

In the US, the central bank chairman was rather upbeat this week on the domestic economy, reiterating that interest rates will likely remain on hold for the foreseeable future.

US stocks have hit new record highs driven by strong results from the retail sector.

On the exchanges, sterling has benefitted from the Conservatives holding their lead in the polls, whilst the dollar has also been supported by decent US economic data.

GBP/USD remains well supported around the 1.2800 level, whilst on the topside, 1.3000 continues to be the short-term key.

GBP/EUR has broken above the 1.1700 level for now, but we expect the year-to-date high of 1.1800 to be a formidable barrier on the topside. We do however, continue to see strong buying on dips towards 1.1500.

GBP/EUR – 1-year chart

Week ahead

Date Release Last Expected*
2/12/19 UK Markit/PMI Manufacturing SA 48.3  48.3
3/12/19 UK Markit/CIPS Construction PMI 44.2  44.8
4/12/19 UK Markit/CIPS Services PMI 48.6  48.6
4/12/19 UK Markit/CIPS Composite PMI 48.5 48.5
6/12/19 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 128k 190k

*Bloomberg survey

Foreign Exchange

Currency Last Currency Last
EUR/USD 1.1010 AUD/USD 0.6780
GBP/USD 1.2910 USD/AED 3.6730
GBP/EUR 1.1725 GBP/AED 4.7410
USD/CHF 0.9985 EUR/AED 4.0430
USD/JPY 109.55 XAU/USD 1457

Equity Indices

Indices Previous Close YTD % Change
FTSE 100 7378 +9.65%
S&P 3153 +25.80%
EUROSTOXX 3689 +22.93%

UK Benchmark Rates

Libor   Swap Mid  
3 month 0.79350% 2 year 0.78%
6 month 0.85775% 3 year 0.79%
12 month 0.94550% 5 year 0.82%


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