Macro Commentary

The markets have been relatively calm this week, with the first leaders’ debate having very little effect.

The polls still show the Conservatives hold a healthy lead, but the market remains extremely cautious. The Tory manifesto will be released next week, as politics continues to dominate the headlines.

In the US, the Fed minutes this week showed the Central Bank is likely to remain on hold now for the foreseeable future, following last month’s rate cut.

The US-China trade negotiations continue to progress, and remain a key driver of market sentiment.

On the exchanges, we remain within the recent ranges as uncertainty prevails.

GBP/USD remains well supported around the 1.2800 level, whilst on the topside, 1.3000 continues to be key.

GBP/EUR briefly broke above the 1.1700 level earlier this week where it met some decent selling interest. We continue to see strong buying on dips towards 1.1500, whilst the year-to-date high of 1.1800 continues to be a formidable barrier on the topside.

GBP/USD – 1-year chart

Week ahead

Date Release Last Expected*
27/11/19 US GDP Annualised QoQ 1.9% 1.9%
29/11/19 UK Mortgage Approvals 65.9k  65.2k
29/11/19 EU CPI Core YoY 1.1% 1.2%

*Bloomberg survey

Equity Indices

Indices Previous Close YTD % Change
FTSE 100 7309 +8.66%
S&P 3103 +23.80%
EUROSTOXX 3703 +23.38%

Foreign Exchange

Currency Last Currency Last
EUR/USD 1.1075 AUD/USD 0.6800
GBP/USD 1.2920 USD/AED 3.6730
GBP/EUR 1.1665 GBP/AED 4.7450
USD/CHF 0.9940 EUR/AED 4.0670
USD/JPY 108.65 XAU/USD 1466

UK Benchmark Rates

Libor   Swap Mid  
3 month 0.79775% 2 year 0.81%
6 month 0.86138% 3 year 0.83%
12 month 0.96550% 5 year 0.86%


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