A huge amount of UK data out this week that showed economic activity continues to weaken, although the Bank of England is likely to resist any cut in interest rates until well into next year, and once we have some political stability.
Earnings, inflation and retail sales figures were all weaker than expected, but were largely ignored by the market as politics continues to drive sentiment.
Volatility is starting to increase with less than a month to the general election. Conviction levels, however, remain extremely low.
In the US, the economy remains relatively robust, helped by the rate cuts, although political uncertainty and slowing global growth remain a real concern.
The US-China trade negotiations have made some initial progress, and this helped push US stocks to new all-time highs.
On the exchanges, we remain within the recent ranges as uncertainty prevails.
GBP/USD remains well supported around the 1.2800 level, whilst on the topside, 1.3000 remains key.
GBP/EUR has nudged up towards 1.1700 on general Euro weakness, its highest levels since May. We continue to see strong buying on dips towards 1.1500, whilst the year-to-date high of 1.1800 continues to be a formidable barrier on the topside.
|20/11/19||US FOMC Minutes||–||–|
|21/11/19||UK Public Sector Net Borrowing||8.7b||8.6b|
|Indices||Previous Close||YTD % Change|
|DFM GENERAL INDEX||2701||+6.76%|
UK Benchmark Rates
|3 month||0.78888%||2 year||0.78%|
|6 month||0.85838%||3 year||0.80%|
|12 month||0.95500%||5 year||0.82%|
This document should be considered a marketing communication for the purposes of the FCA rules. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. The information given in this document is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or any other investment or banking product. It does not constitute investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or service is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances.
You should seek professional advice before making any investment decision. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise. An investor may not get back the amount of money invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Investment returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations.
The facts and opinions expressed are those of the author of the document, as of the date of writing and are liable to change without notice. We do not make any representations as to the accuracy or completeness of the material and do not accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof. We are under no obligation to ensure that updates to the document are brought to the attention of any recipient of this material. Please note that this commentary may not be reproduced, distributed, disseminated, broadcasted, sold, published or circulated without prior consent from Arbuthnot Latham & Co., Limited. Arbuthnot Latham & Co., Limited is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Arbuthnot Latham & Co., Limited DIFC Branch is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority.