Macro Commentary

The market has obviously been dominated by the Brexit talks, with the UK and EU announcing yesterday that a deal had been agreed. Crucially, however, the deal now needs the backing of parliament, which will vote on Saturday. With the DUP already saying they won’t back it, the vote will likely be extremely close.

In the US, the Chinese trade talks continue, and although there seems to be little in the way of progress so far, optimism remains that a deal could be reached next month.

The market increasingly expects the US central bank to cut interest rates at the end of this month, as the global economy continues to slow, and geopolitical tensions increase, with the US raising tariffs on Turkey.

On the exchanges, volatility has been at extreme levels as the Brexit negotiations play out, with sterling rallying strongly on the progress that’s been made.

GBP/USD almost reached the 1.3000 level early yesterday, before falling back on concerns parliament would reject the deal.

GBP/EUR initially rallied towards 1.1700, before quickly falling back to 1.1500, as the uncertainty continues into the weekend.

All eyes are now on tomorrows vote which will decide which direction the markets will trade going forward.

GBP/USD – 1-year chart

Week ahead

Date Release Last Expected*
24/10/19 EU ECB Deposit Facility Rate -0.50% -0.50%

*Bloomberg survey

Equity Indices

Indices Previous Close YTD % Change
FTSE 100 7155 +6.39%
S&P 2997 +19.59%
EUROSTOXX 3587 +19.55%
DFM GENERAL INDEX 2780 +9.88%

Foreign Exchange

Currency Last Currency Last
EUR/USD 1.1125 AUD/USD 0.6830
GBP/USD 1.2860 USD/AED 3.6730
GBP/EUR 1.1560 GBP/AED 4.7250
USD/CHF 0.9885 EUR/AED 4.0860
USD/JPY 108.60 XAU/USD 1488

UK Benchmark Rates

Libor   Swap Mid  
3 month 0.79313% 2 year 0.82%
6 month 0.88463% 3 year 0.82%
12 month 0.98475% 5 year 0.83%

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