Macro Commentary

The Prime Minister’s new Brexit proposals have dominated the headlines. We will see in the coming days how his plans are received by the EU and Irish authorities.

With the EU summit scheduled for 17 October, time is of the essence, and it remains likely the negotiations will run to the wire.

Aside from Brexit, the EU economy continues to stagnate, with central bank governor Draghi again stating the urgent need for fiscal policy support, particularly from Germany, to complement monetary policy, in order to stimulate growth.

Sentiment will not be helped by a potential new trade dispute between the EU and the US.

On the exchanges, there remains a lack of conviction and trading volumes remain light on the ongoing political uncertainty. We have, however, seen some decent sterling demand following the PM’s new proposals, with some optimism a deal could still be reached.

GBP/USD did push up to 1.2400 yesterday, with the pivotal 1.2550 level now coming in to play. There remains strong buying interest at the psychological 1.2000 level.

GBP/EUR has recovered from the interim support level of 1.1200 as expected, but remains within its recent range. Significant

buying interest is building at 1.1000, whilst on the topside the recent high around 1.1400 is the initial level to watch.

GBP/USD – 1-year chart

Week ahead

Date Release Last Expected*
9/10/19 US FOMC Minutes
10/10/19 UK Monthly GDP (3M/3M) 0.0%  0.1%
10/10/19 UK Industrial Prod. YoY -0.9%  -0.8%
10/10/19 UK Manufacturing Prod. YoY -0.6%  -0.6%
10/10/19 UK Construction Output MoM 0.5% 0.0%
10/10/19 US CPI YoY 1.7% 1.9%

*Bloomberg survey

Equity Indices

Indices Previous Close YTD % Change
FTSE 100 7099 +5.55%
S&P 2910 +16.11%
EUROSTOXX 3426 +14.19%
DFM GENERAL INDEX 2761 +9.13%

Foreign Exchange

Currency Last Currency Last
EUR/USD 1.0975 AUD/USD 0.6755
GBP/USD 1.2340 USD/AED 3.6730
GBP/EUR 1.1250 GBP/AED 4.5330
USD/CHF 0.9975 EUR/AED 4.0300
USD/JPY 106.75 XAU/USD 1508

UK Benchmark Rates

Libor   Swap Mid  
3 month 0.76075% 2 year 0.65%
6 month 0.82613% 3 year 0.60%
12 month 0.89150% 5 year 0.58%

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