Macro Commentary

Brexit negotiations have continued this week, with focus on the Irish backstop and Boris taking the initiative to have meetings with key member states of the EU.

Boris met Merkel to urge a review of the Irish backstop plan. This was met with surprising optimism from Merkel, who suggested an alternative could be found whilst working on a regime that keeps to the parameters as set out in the Good Friday agreement.

President Macron seems to have shown less signs of a compromise but stated that whilst the UK’s decision to leave the EU must be respected,  the Irish Backstop is still necessary. He remained confident the UK and EU would find a solution that will not stray too far from the original proposal.

In the US, Trump continues to urge the US Central bank to cut rates by at least 1%. He claimed in a tweet that a strong dollar was hurting other parts of the world but insisted the economy is doing very well despite fears of it falling into recession. Trump also confirmed that he would consider a temporary payroll tax cut in order to help try boosting the US economy. Hints that a deal with China is still a long way off and the US/China trade tension continues.

The positive Brexit news nudged GBP/USD up past the 1.2260 barrier, its highest level this month. Concerns remain for a weaker GBP with expected buying interest below 1.2100.

GBP/EUR hit 1.1050 after promising Brexit talks, a three-week high, and strong buying interest remains ahead 1.0950.

GBP/USD – 1-year chart

Week ahead

Date Release Last Expected*
30/08/19 Mortgage Approvals 66.4k 66.0k

*Bloomberg survey

Foreign Exchange

Currency Last Currency Last
EUR/USD 1.1065 AUD/USD 0.6755
GBP/USD 1.2200 USD/AED 3.6730
GBP/EUR 1.1020 GBP/AED 4.4810
USD/CHF 0.9860 EUR/AED 4.0645
USD/JPY 106.65 XAU/USD 1495

Equity Indices

Indices Previous Close YTD % Change
FTSE 100 7128 +6.59%
S&P 2922 +16.60%
EUROSTOXX 3373 +12.86%

UK Benchmark Rates

Libor   Swap Mid  
3 month 0.76088% 2 year 0.71%
6 month 0.79888% 3 year 0.72%
12 month 0.85363% 5 year 0.72%


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