A quiet week on the economic front has meant that politics has continued to dominate the headlines. Unfortunately, the speculation and uncertainty will continue over the coming months as the conservative leadership race plays out.
Meanwhile tensions continue to rise in the US-China trade dispute, with both sides hardening their stance, which is of course weighing on global market sentiment. Trump’s further threats of tariffs on Mexico are only adding to global trade concerns.
On the exchanges sterling remains under pressure, whilst the dollar continues to benefit from safe haven flows.
GBP/USD remains just above its year-to-date lows around 1.2600, a sharp drop from 1.3200 earlier this month.
Sterling sentiment remains weak, but we do expect solid buying interest at 1.2500.
GBP/EUR continues to hold above 1.1300 for now, with the historically strong support level of 1.1200 now in focus.
|3/6/19||UK Markit Manufacturing PMI SA||53.1||52.0|
|4/6/19||EU CPI Core YoY||1.3%||1.1%|
|4/6/19||UK Markit/CIPS Construction PMI||50.5||50.4|
|5/6/19||UK Markit/CIPS Services PMI||50.4||50.6|
|5/6/19||UK Markit/CIPS Composite PMI||50.9||50.7|
|7/6/19||UK Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year||5.0%||4.9%|
|7/6/19||US Nonfarm Payrolls||263k||190k|
|Indices||Previous Close||YTD % Change|
|DFM GENERAL INDEX||2620||+3.56%|
UK Benchmark Rates
|3 month||0.79575%||2 year||0.89%|
|6 month||0.89363%||3 year||0.91%|
|12 month||1.02388%||5 year||0.96%|
This document should be considered a marketing communication for the purposes of the FCA rules. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. The information given in this document is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or any other investment or banking product. It does not constitute investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or service is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances.
You should seek professional advice before making any investment decision. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise. An investor may not get back the amount of money invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Investment returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations.
The facts and opinions expressed are those of the author of the document, as of the date of writing and are liable to change without notice. We do not make any representations as to the accuracy or completeness of the material and do not accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof. We are under no obligation to ensure that updates to the document are brought to the attention of any recipient of this material. Please note that this commentary may not be reproduced, distributed, disseminated, broadcasted, sold, published or circulated without prior consent from Arbuthnot Latham & Co., Limited. Arbuthnot Latham & Co., Limited is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Arbuthnot Latham & Co., Limited DIFC Branch is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority.