Macro Commentary

The EU have agreed to a Brexit extension as expected, but if anything this now just adds to the current market uncertainty.

The extension to October 31 is longer than the prime minister had hoped for, but there is the option to leave sooner should she get her deal passed, which continues to look unlikely.

A number of very different outcomes are all still possible.

UK economic data this week was relatively robust, with the focus now on next week’s inflation and earnings data.

At the European Central Bank meeting this week the committee kept policy on hold as expected, although they remain rather downbeat on the economy.

On the exchanges, we remain in the familiar ranges, with market conviction remaining low and political uncertainty remaining high.

GBP/USD continues to have strong buying interest at 1.3000, whilst 1.3350 remains the initial topside level to watch.

GBP/EUR has initial support at 1.1550, with the recent highs around 1.1800 continuing to hold the topside for now.

GBP/EUR – 1-year chart

Week ahead

Date Release Last Expected*
16/4/19 UK Average Weekly Earns. 3M/YoY 3.4%  3.6%
16/4/19 UK Unemployment Rate 3.9%  4.0%
17/4/19 UK CPI YoY 1.9%  2.0%
17/4/19 UK RPI YoY 2.5%  2.6%
17/4/19 EU CPI YoY 1.9%  2%
18/4/19 UK Retail Sales YoY 4.0%  4.6%


*Bloomberg survey

Equity Indices

Indices Previous Close YTD % Change
FTSE 100 7417 +10.33%
S&P 2891 +15.22%
EUROSTOXX 3432 +14.21%
DFM GENERAL INDEX 2790 +10.28%

Foreign Exchange

Currency Last Currency Last
EUR/USD 1.1287 AUD/USD 0.7125
GBP/USD 1.3060 USD/AED 3.6730
GBP/EUR 1.1570 GBP/AED 4.7965
USD/CHF 1.0025 EUR/AED 4.1450
USD/JPY 111.85 XAU/USD 1292

UK Benchmark Rates

Libor   Swap Mid  
3 month 0.82763% 2 year 1.02%
6 month 0.94100% 3 year 1.08%
12 month 1.08450% 5 year 1.19%


+44 (0)20 7012 2599


+971 4 377 0902

View Arbuthnot Latham’s Private and Commercial deposit rates.

This document should be considered a marketing communication for the purposes of the FCA rules. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.  The information given in this document is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or any other investment or banking product. It does not constitute investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or service is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances.

You should seek professional advice before making any investment decision. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise. An investor may not get back the amount of money invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Investment returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations.

The facts and opinions expressed are those of the author of the document, as of the date of writing and are liable to change without notice. We do not make any representations as to the accuracy or completeness of the material and do not accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof. We are under no obligation to ensure that updates to the document are brought to the attention of any recipient of this material. Please note that this commentary may not be reproduced, distributed, disseminated, broadcasted, sold, published or circulated without prior consent from Arbuthnot Latham & Co., Limited. Arbuthnot Latham & Co., Limited is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Arbuthnot Latham & Co., Limited DIFC Branch is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority.

Would you like to receive Arbuthnot Latham’s weekly Treasury Market Commentary directly to your email inbox? Click the button to subscribe to our email newsletters.