Macro Commentary

It has been another critical week for Brexit, although there has still been little in the way of tangible progress.

Despite May now engaging with the other parties, many remain skeptical as to whether this can lead to any breakthrough.

The prime minister is now set to ask the EU for a further short delay, hoping to avoid the need to participate in European elections.

The focus now moves towards next Thursday’s EU summit.

Away from Brexit, seemingly good progress on the US-China trade negotiations have buoyed markets, although slowing global growth remains a serious concern.

On the exchanges, we remain in familiar ranges, with market conviction remaining low.

GBP/USD continues to have strong buying interest at 1.3000, whilst 1.3350 remains the initial topside level to watch.

GBP/EUR has initial support at 1.1550, with 1.1800 continuing to hold the topside for now.

Today’s focus will be on the US payrolls data due out at 1.30pm.

GBP/EUR – 1-year chart

Week ahead

Date Release Last Expected*
10/4/19 UK Trade Balance -£3825m -£3500m
10/4/19 UK Industrial Prod. YoY -0.9%  -0.8%
10/4/19 UK Manufacturing Prod. YoY -1.1% -0.6%
10/4/19 UK Construction Output SA YoY 1.8% 2.5%
10/4/19 UK GDP MoM 0.5% 0.2%
10/4/19 US CPI YoY 1.5% 1.8%
10/4/19 US FOMC Minutes

*Bloomberg survey

Foreign Exchange

Currency Last Currency Last
EUR/USD 1.1225 AUD/USD 0.7125
GBP/USD 1.3100 USD/AED 3.6730
GBP/EUR 1.1670 GBP/AED 4.8130
USD/CHF 1.0000 EUR/AED 4.1240
USD/JPY 111.65 XAU/USD 1289

Equity Indices

Indices Previous Close YTD % Change
FTSE 100 7401 +10.16%
S&P 2879 +14.86%
EUROSTOXX 3441 +14.75%
DFM GENERAL INDEX 2776 +9.72%

UK Benchmark Rates

Libor   Swap Mid  
3 month 0.82938% 2 year 1.01%
6 month 0.95025% 3 year 1.06%
12 month 1.07138% 5 year 1.16%

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