Macro Commentary

The OECD this week cut its global growth forecasts on geo-political uncertainty, ongoing trade tensions and slowing growth.

In Europe, the ECB yesterday kept policy on hold, but revised down its growth forecasts, and announced further refinancing operations as the economy continues to slow.

In the US, we continue to await further developments on the trade negotiations with China. The focus today however, is on the jobs market data due out at 1.30pm.

Whilst in the UK, we have a huge week ahead for Brexit, with the parliamentary vote on the prime minister’s plan being held Tuesday. If her plan is again rejected, there will be further votes on whether to leave with no deal, or to delay Brexit.

On the exchanges, there continues to be a lack of real conviction with uncertainty remaining so high.

GBP/USD, having hit 1.3350 last week has dropped towards 1.3100. Strong buying interest remains at 1.3000 for now.

GBP/EUR remains underpinned, with the Euro weakening on the back of yesterday’s rather dovish ECB meeting.

GBP/EUR – 1-year chart

Week ahead

Date Release Last Expected*
12/3/19 UK Trade Balance  £3229m -£3442m
12/3/19 UK Industrial Prod. YoY -0.9%  -1.4%
12/3/19 UK Manufacturing Prod. YoY -2.1%  -2.1%
12/3/19 UK Construction Output SA YoY -2.4%  -0.7%
12/3/19 UK GDP MoM -0.4%  0.1%
12/3/19 US CPI YoY 1.6% 1.6%
15/3/19 EU CPI YoY 1.4% 1.5%

*Bloomberg survey

Foreign Exchange

Currency Last Currency Last
EUR/USD 1.1210 AUD/USD 0.7015
GBP/USD 1.3100 USD/AED 3.6730
GBP/EUR 1.1690 GBP/AED 4.8120
USD/CHF 1.0100 EUR/AED 4.1160
USD/JPY 111.05 XAU/USD 1293

Equity Indices

Indices Previous Close YTD % Change
FTSE 100 7157 +5.72%
S&P 2748 +9.66%
EUROSTOXX 3308 +9.79%

UK Benchmark Rates

Libor   Swap Mid  
3 month 0.84313% 2 year 1.07%
6 month 0.98575% 3 year 1.13%
12 month 1.12475% 5 year 1.22%


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