Macro Commentary

Another interesting week from a political perspective, with the resignations we have seen from the two main parties.

There has been little tangible progress on the Brexit talks, with focus now very much on Feb 27, when there will be a further parliamentary debate, at least, with an outside possibility of another ‘meaningful vote’.

Time is now very short ahead of the planned March 29 exit, so we would expect to see some critical developments next week.

In the US, trade talks with China are ongoing, with increased hopes that the March 1 deadline for further US tariffs will be extended.

On the exchanges, sterling has nudged higher ahead of a critical week for the Brexit negotiations.

GBP/USD hit its monthly highs around 1.3100 this week, with strong resistance remaining at the yearly high just above 1.3200.

Strong buying interest remains at 1.2750.

GBP/EUR rallied above 1.1500 this week, with the year-to-date high of 1.1600 now in focus. Strong support remains at 1.1250.

GBP/EUR – 1-year chart

Week ahead

Date Release Last Expected*
28/2/19 UK Gfk Consumer Confidence -14 -15
1/3/19 UK Markit PMI Manufacturing SA 52.8  52.2
1/3/19 UK Mortgage Approvals 63.8k  63.5k
1/3/19 EU CPI Estimate YoY 1.4% 1.5%

*Bloomberg survey

Foreign Exchange

Currency Last Currency Last
EUR/USD 1.1350 AUD/USD 0.7115
GBP/USD 1.3035 USD/AED 3.6730
GBP/EUR 1.1490 GBP/AED 4.7890
USD/CHF 1.0000 EUR/AED 4.1685
USD/JPY 110.80 XAU/USD 1326

Equity Indices

Indices Previous Close YTD % Change
FTSE 100 7167 +6.83%
S&P 2774 +10.69%
EUROSTOXX 3263 +8.89%
DFM GENERAL INDEX 2633 +4.07%

UK Benchmark Rates

Libor   Swap Mid  
3 month 0.86475% 2 year 1.07%
6 month 0.99488% 3 year 1.13%
12 month 1.13850% 5 year 1.23%

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