Macro Commentary

There appears to be no tangible progress on the Brexit negotiations with time continuing to run out. The prime minister has to report back to parliament by Feb 14, before MP’s get another ‘meaningful vote’.

The Bank of England yesterday kept rates on hold as widely expected, and cut its growth forecasts. The committee are now expecting only one rate rise over the next three years, though future policy will be largely dependent on the outcome of Brexit.

Data this week showed the vitally important services sector has again weakened, as the political uncertainty continues to weigh.

In the EU, the economic data also continues to weaken, with German data this week much softer than expected.

On the exchanges, sterling has eased back following its strong rally last month, however there continues to be strong demand on any dips lower.

GBP/USD dropped 1.2850 yesterday, before rallying back towards 1.3000. Strong support remains at 1.2750.

GBP/EUR dipped briefly to 1.1350 where there remains some initial buying interest, ahead of the stronger support at 1.1250.

GBP/USD – 1-year chart

Week ahead

Date Release Last Expected*
11/2/19 UK GDP YoY 1.5% 1.4%
11/2/19 UK Industrial Prod. YoY -1.5%  -0.3%
11/2/19 UK Manufacturing Prod. YoY -1.1%  -1.0%
13/2/19 UK CPI YoY 2.1% 2.0%
13/2/19 UK RPI YoY 2.7% 2.7%
13/2/19 US CPI YoY 1.9% 1.5%
15/2/19 UK Retail Sales YoY 3.0% 3.2%

*Bloomberg survey

Equity Indices

Indices Previous Close YTD % Change
FTSE 100 7093 +5.73%
S&P 2706 +7.95%
EUROSTOXX 3150 +5.24%

Foreign Exchange

Currency Last Currency Last
EUR/USD 1.1325 AUD/USD 0.7085
GBP/USD 1.2925 USD/AED 3.6730
GBP/EUR 1.1410 GBP/AED 4.7480
USD/CHF 1.0015 EUR/AED 4.1600
USD/JPY 109.85 XAU/USD 1309

UK Benchmark Rates

Libor   Swap Mid  
3 month 0.89688% 2 year 1.06%
6 month 1.01488% 3 year 1.12%
12 month 1.16463% 5 year 1.20%


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