Macro Commentary

Brexit continues to drive market sentiment, with huge uncertainty, and a range of possible outcomes still possible.

Prime minister May is in dialogue with the other UK parties to try to gain a consensus, and remains in negotiations with the EU to formulate a way forward. She will come back to parliament on Monday with a new plan.

The Labour party are expected to table further no-confidence votes in the coming weeks, while an extension to Article 50 is an increasing possibility.

Away from Brexit, UK inflation dropped this week to 2.1%, its lowest in nearly two years, driven by the lower oil price.

Whilst in Europe, economic growth also continues to slow.

Globally, equity markets are currently maintaining their positive momentum, with most indices posting reasonable gains.

On the exchanges, there remains a lack of real conviction in the market due to the uncertain political backdrop.

Sterling is trading near its year-to-date highs against the dollar & Euro, on hopes of a softer Brexit outcome. Volumes however, have been light and the market remains particularly nervous.

GBP/USD – 1-year chart

Week ahead

Date Release Last Expected*
22/1/19 UK Average Weekly Earns. 3M/YoY 3.3%  3.3%
22/1/19 UK Unemployment Rate 4.1% 4.1%

*Bloomberg survey

Foreign Exchange

Currency Last Currency Last
EUR/USD 1.1390 AUD/USD 0.7180
GBP/USD 1.2945 USD/AED 3.6730
GBP/EUR 1.1365 GBP/AED 4.7550
USD/CHF 0.9945 EUR/AED 4.1840
USD/JPY 109.45 XAU/USD 1287

Equity Indices

Indices Previous Close YTD % Change
FTSE 100 6834 +2.46%
S&P 2635 +5.15%
EUROSTOXX 3069 +3.28%

UK Benchmark Rates

Libor   Swap Mid  
3 month 0.92744% 2 year 1.17%
6 month 1.03600% 3 year 1.25%
12 month 1.17538% 5 year 1.37%


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