Macro Commentary

Happy New Year to all!

It has been an incredibly volatile start to the year across all asset classes, as global uncertainty remains extremely high.

A lack of liquidity has prevailed this week and this has helped exacerbate the moves.

UK data shows the economy continues to cool, with services sales growth at a 2-year low.

Prime Minister May continues to attempt to negotiate with EU leaders to try to gain some further concessions, ahead of Parliament’s crucial Brexit vote set for the week of January 14.

Whilst in the US, the market has moved from expecting three rate rises next year to now expecting none.

On the exchanges, the familiar story of sterling weakness due to the Brexit uncertainty continues.

GBP/USD dropped below 1.2450 briefly yesterday and will remain under pressure whilst below 1.2750.

GBP/EUR sentiment also remains weak whilst below 1.1250. Strong support remains at 1.1000 for now.

GBP/EUR – 1-year chart

Week ahead

Date Release Last Expected*
9/1/19 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
11/1/19 UK Trade Balance -£3300m -£2500m
11/1/19 UK Manufacturing Prod. YoY -1.0% -0.7%
11/1/19 UK Industrial Prod. YoY -0.8% -0.6%
11/1/19 UK GDP MoM 0.1% 0.2%
11/1/19 US CPI YoY 2.2% 1.9%

*Bloomberg survey

Foreign Exchange

Currency Last Currency Last
EUR/USD 1.1410 AUD/USD 0.7025
GBP/USD 1.2670 USD/AED 3.6730
GBP/EUR 1.1100 GBP/AED 4.6540
USD/CHF 0.9860 EUR/AED 4.1920
USD/JPY 108.00 XAU/USD 1292

Equity Indices

Indices Previous Close YTD % Change
FTSE 100 6692 -0.00%
S&P 2447 -2.35%
EUROSTOXX 2954 -0.83%

UK Benchmark Rates

Libor   Swap Mid  
3 month 0.90919% 2 year 1.11%
6 month 1.03056% 3 year 1.16%
12 month 1.16931% 5 year 1.25%


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