Macro Commentary

Prime minister May has started her tour of the country as she bids to gain support for her Brexit agreement, ahead of the crucial vote in Parliament on December 11.

If Parliament were to overwhelmingly reject the deal, we move into uncharted waters, and could see a no-confidence vote, or perhaps another referendum.

In the US, Trump continues to take a tough stance on the trade negotiations with China, which is weighing on global market sentiment.

Whilst in Europe, the economic data, led by Germany, has started to soften, which along with concerns over the Italian budget, has weighed on the Euro.

On the exchanges, sterling remains under pressure with the ongoing Brexit uncertainty.

GBP/USD remains near the lower end of its year-to-date range, with last month’s low of 1.2700 and the August low of 1.2660 the downside levels to watch. Whilst on the topside, 1.3050 remains the initial target point.

For GBP/EUR, there remains strong buying interest below the 1.1200 level, whilst 1.1400 continues to be the topside level to watch.

GBP/USD – 1-year chart

Week ahead

Date Release Last Expected*
3/12/18 UK Markit PMI Manufacturing SA 51.1 52.0
4/12/18 UK Markit/CIPS Construction PMI 53.2 52.6
5/12/18 UK Markit/CIPS Services PMI 52.2 52.7

*Bloomberg survey

Foreign Exchange

Currency Last Currency Last
EUR/USD 1.1375 AUD/USD 0.7310
GBP/USD 1.2785 USD/AED 3.6730
GBP/EUR 1.1235 GBP/AED 4.6950
USD/CHF 0.9965 EUR/AED 4.1795
USD/JPY 113.40 XAU/USD 1224

Equity Indices

Indices Previous Close YTD % Change
FTSE 100 7038 -8.81%
S&P 2737 +2.40%
EUROSTOXX 3174 -9.59%
DFM GENERAL INDEX 2668 -20.83%

UK Benchmark Rates

Libor   Swap Mid  
3 month 0.89819% 2 year 1.16%
6 month 1.00313% 3 year 1.24%
12 month 1.13819% 5 year 1.35%

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